SEBA Projections

Philadelphia Union

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through June 18

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Philadelphia's playoffs chances continue to crash. Also, the USOC chances get bleak due to unlucky draw.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through June 11

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Despite only a few games this week, Philadelphia's chances continue to decline a little bit.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through June 4

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Chicago at the top of the power rankings. Philadelphia continues declining. They'll need to pull at least 7 points from the next three home matches to improve their playoffs outlook.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through May 28

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Philadelphia moves up in power rankings but down in playoff chances. Toronto is back on top.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through May 21

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Philadelphia moves up to 7th in SEBA's power rankings. NYCFC takes the top spot overall. USOC second round is complete with the fourth round draw decided.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through May 14

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Philadelphia jumps up to 10th in Power Rankings. Toronto takes 1st. U.S. Open Cup 1st round is finished and the 3rd round draw is complete.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through May 7

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Philadelphia climbs out of last in the power rankings and moves in the right direction towards improving playoff odds.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through April 30

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Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through April 30. Orlando takes over 1st place in power rankings. Philly needs to bank a win before it can move out of the cellar.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through April 23

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Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through April 23

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through April 16

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Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through April 16

Updated MLS and USL SEBA projections through April 9

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Updated MLS and USL SEBA projections through April 9

Updated MLS and USL SEBA projections through April 2

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Updated MLS and USL SEBA projections through April 2

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through March 26

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Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through March 26

Updated MLS and USL SEBA projections through March 12

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* As I will be on vacation next week with limited access to my computer/programs, there will not be a new forecast next week. I will run it for over-time-graph purposes, but the next published forecast will be on the 29th. Below are the updated season forecasts using data [...]

Updated MLS SEBA projections through March 5

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Updated SEBA rankings & projections through March 5th, 2017

2017 initial SEBA projections

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Initial 2017 MLS projections, along with how the model has changed from last season and a re-introduction as to what it is.

Updated SEBA Projections through October 30

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Chris Sherman with updated SEBA projections.

Updated SEBA Projections through October 16

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Chris Sherman has updated SEBA projections for the Union.

Updated SEBA Projections through October 9

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The latest SEBA projections have the probability the Union will reach the playoffs at 96.3%.

Updated SEBA Projections through October 2

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Chris Sherman has updated SEBA projections for the Union following the loss at New York Red Bulls.

Updated SEBA Projections through September 25

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Chris Sherman has the latest SEBA projections for the Union.

Updated SEBA Projections through September 18

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Updated SEBA projections for the Union, Bethlehem Steel, and the City Islanders.

Updated SEBA Projections through September 11

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Welcome to the Statistical Extrapolation Bayesian Analyzer Projection System, which is, of course, a tortured gathering of wordsused to formthe SEBA Projection System. The system consists of a model projecting the probabilities of game results and then a barrage of simulations which account for the remaining luck.

Updated SEBA Projections through September 4

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Chris Sherman has updated SEBA projections for the Union, BEthlehem Steel, and City Islanders.

Updated SEBA Projections through August 28

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Updated SEBA projections for the Union, Bethlehem Steel, and the City Islanders.

Updated SEBA Projections through August 21

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Check out SEBA's predictions for the home stretch of the MLS season. Plus, expected points predictions for the Union's upcoming matches. Also, plenty of fascinating, updated predictions for USL and NWSL.

Updated SEBA Projections through August 14th

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Updated SEBA projections for Philadelphia Union, Bethlehem Steel, and Harrisburg City Islanders.

Updated SEBA Projections through August 7th

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Chris SHerman has updated SEBA projections for the Union, Bethlehem Steel, and the City Islanders.

2018 World Cup qualifying

Updated SEBA international forecasts through June 13

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Updates to USMNT projections after their draw at Azteca; Updates on total world cup picture

Updated SEBA international forecasts through June 8

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How can stats forecast the Hex for the USMNT? Chris Sherman has the latest.

Updated SEBA international forecasts through May 29

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USMNT projections, World Cup/Qualifying projections, Gold Cup projections, all kinds of projections

Updated SEBA international forecasts through March 29

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SEBA World Cup Qualification, 2018 World Cup, and other updates on projections from matches between 3/26-3/29.

SEBA World Cup projections, qualification, and more projections

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World Cup projections, qualification, gold cup, every kind of cup forecast. Oh, and you will also find complaining about the FIFA rankings algorithm.

World Cup Qualification: SEBA-International Projections through November 16

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Chris Sherman has updated World Cup qualification SEBA projections following the latest round of qualifiers.

World Cup Qualification: SEBA-International Projections through November 13

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Chris Sherman has updated World Cup qualification projections following the US loss to Mexico in their opening game of the Hexagonal Round.

World Cup Qualification: SEBA-International Projections through November 6

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Chris Sherman has updated World Cup Qualification forecasts ahead of the upcoming international dates.

U.S. Women's National Team

Summer Olympics SEBA Projection updates through August 13

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Updated SEBA projections for the women's soccer tournament at the Olympics.

Summer Olympics SEBA Projection updates through August 10

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Chris Sherman has updated SEBA projections for the USWNT at the Olympics.

Summer Olympics SEBA Projection Updates through August 7

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Updated SEBA projections for the USWNT at the Olympic tournament in Brazil.

Summer Olympics SEBA Projection Updates through August 3

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Updated SEBA projections for the USWNT at the Summer Games.