SEBA Projections

Philadelphia Union

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through August 13

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Philadelphia playoffs chances plummet. New Union player +/- analysis is available though!

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through August 6

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The Union improve slightly in this week's SEBA updates.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through July 30

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Philadelphia's playoff chances actually increase a bit, but nowhere near as far as they need to. Bethlehem shows its belly and joins the fray of teams fighting for playoff slots.

Updated MLS, USL, NWSL, and Gold Cup SEBA projections through July 23

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Philadelphia's chances at the playoffs take a steep dive. The USMNT has a very winnable Gold Cup final, even against Andre Blake.

Updated MLS, USL, NWSL, and Gold Cup SEBA projections through July 16

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The USA moves on to the quarter-finals, and the U.S. Open Cup makes progress.

Updated MLS, USL, NWSL, and Gold Cup SEBA projections through July 9

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Philadelphia keeps pace with expectations, but still needs to over-perform to make a serious push at playoffs. Gold Cup projections are thrown in as a bonus for those interested.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through July 2

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New SEBA projections. Union chances improve a little, but power ranking improves a lot, as the model still tries to figure out what to think of Philadelphia.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through June 24

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Philadelphia's odds improve, but are still in a deep hole. Chicago stays on top.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through June 18

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Philadelphia's playoffs chances continue to crash. Also, the USOC chances get bleak due to unlucky draw.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through June 11

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Despite only a few games this week, Philadelphia's chances continue to decline a little bit.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through June 4

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Chicago at the top of the power rankings. Philadelphia continues declining. They'll need to pull at least 7 points from the next three home matches to improve their playoffs outlook.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through May 28

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Philadelphia moves up in power rankings but down in playoff chances. Toronto is back on top.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through May 21

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Philadelphia moves up to 7th in SEBA's power rankings. NYCFC takes the top spot overall. USOC second round is complete with the fourth round draw decided.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through May 14

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Philadelphia jumps up to 10th in Power Rankings. Toronto takes 1st. U.S. Open Cup 1st round is finished and the 3rd round draw is complete.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through May 7

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Philadelphia climbs out of last in the power rankings and moves in the right direction towards improving playoff odds.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through April 30

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Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through April 30. Orlando takes over 1st place in power rankings. Philly needs to bank a win before it can move out of the cellar.

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through April 23

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Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through April 23

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through April 16

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Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through April 16

Updated MLS and USL SEBA projections through April 9

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Updated MLS and USL SEBA projections through April 9

Updated MLS and USL SEBA projections through April 2

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Updated MLS and USL SEBA projections through April 2

Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through March 26

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Updated MLS, USL, and NWSL SEBA projections through March 26

Updated MLS and USL SEBA projections through March 12

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* As I will be on vacation next week with limited access to my computer/programs, there will not be a new forecast next week. I will run it for over-time-graph purposes, but the next published forecast will be on the 29th. Below are the updated season forecasts using data [...]

Updated MLS SEBA projections through March 5

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Updated SEBA rankings & projections through March 5th, 2017

2017 initial SEBA projections

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Initial 2017 MLS projections, along with how the model has changed from last season and a re-introduction as to what it is.

Updated SEBA Projections through October 30

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Chris Sherman with updated SEBA projections.

Updated SEBA Projections through October 16

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Chris Sherman has updated SEBA projections for the Union.

Updated SEBA Projections through October 9

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The latest SEBA projections have the probability the Union will reach the playoffs at 96.3%.

Updated SEBA Projections through October 2

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Chris Sherman has updated SEBA projections for the Union following the loss at New York Red Bulls.

Updated SEBA Projections through September 25

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Chris Sherman has the latest SEBA projections for the Union.

United States Men's National Team

Updated Gold Cup SEBA projections through July 13

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A quick update on Gold Cup projections with two matches per team completed

Updated SEBA international forecasts through July 3

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Ahead of the Gold Cup, check out the tournament's projections for the USMNT. Also includes updated World Cup Qualifying projections.

Updated SEBA international forecasts through July 3

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Ahead of the Gold Cup, check out the tournament's projections for the USMNT. Also includes updated World Cup Qualifying projections.

Updated SEBA international forecasts through June 13

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Updates to USMNT projections after their draw at Azteca; Updates on total world cup picture

Updated SEBA international forecasts through June 8

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How can stats forecast the Hex for the USMNT? Chris Sherman has the latest.

Updated SEBA international forecasts through May 29

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USMNT projections, World Cup/Qualifying projections, Gold Cup projections, all kinds of projections

Updated SEBA international forecasts through March 29

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SEBA World Cup Qualification, 2018 World Cup, and other updates on projections from matches between 3/26-3/29.

SEBA World Cup projections, qualification, and more projections

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World Cup projections, qualification, gold cup, every kind of cup forecast. Oh, and you will also find complaining about the FIFA rankings algorithm.

World Cup Qualification: SEBA-International Projections through November 16

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Chris Sherman has updated World Cup qualification SEBA projections following the latest round of qualifiers.

World Cup Qualification: SEBA-International Projections through November 13

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Chris Sherman has updated World Cup qualification projections following the US loss to Mexico in their opening game of the Hexagonal Round.

World Cup Qualification: SEBA-International Projections through November 6

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Chris Sherman has updated World Cup Qualification forecasts ahead of the upcoming international dates.