bookmakers - Most popular for 2007
Viewing all posts which authors have tagged ‘bookmakers’.
You can also subscribe to this tag's feed.
Today, there are two posts in that broadsheet bastion of the bookmaking fraternity called The
Guardian that focus on Sabermetrics. This prompts us to produce an overall assessment of the value
of such "science" in modern day football.
To the uninitiated, Sabermetrics is a statistical evaluation of a sportsplayer based on selective
and historical match data together with current training ground measurements.
What is the point of these international breaks apart from for the encouragement of xenophobic
neo-nationalists from Serbia to England? All we get is non-competitive, manipulated matches that
are virtually irrelevant in that UEFA (or FIFA with regard to the World Cup) have already
determined who the desired qualifiers are to be. Following the original competition draw, the
arrangement of the match calendar and the selection of the referees, not very much is left to
chance.
There are only five Premiership teams that Dietrological or, for that matter, the individual
members of our Trading Team would consider working alongside on a consultative level. We refuse to
get involved with teams linked to gangsters, bookmakers, arms dealers, online casinos, private
equity-heads, human rights abusers and professional gamblers (whether at management or player
level).
From time to time, the English mainstream media throw excessive hissy fits about entirely
fabricated footballing realities. These spectacular society nonsenses, although pithy in the big
scheme of things, always have a purpose and that purpose usually relates to some insider(s)
increasing the positive nature of their cashflow(s).
A prime example of this waste of column inches is the focus on Martin Jol and Tottenham.
It has never been like this before and it will never be the same again - there is no better
definition of the basic matrix of all financial markets. Constant evolution drives the markets
forward as these multidisciplinary playgrounds are complex beyond the static realities of a pure
science. That is why it is so interesting.
In parallel with the not-so-random walk of the markets, march the career opportunities related to
analysts.
As the takeover of the Premiership by individuals, partnerships or consortia with either previous
or strategic betting market plans continues apace, today we take a look at "mysterious" Carson
Yeung who this week increased his stake in Birmingham City to just under 30%.
Okay lets look at a few of the known facts about Hong Kong-based businessman Yeung.
As absolute power corrupts absolutely, there must be concerns about FIFA and, in particular, Sepp
Blatter. At the recent FIFA Congress in Zurich, Blatter was reelected unopposed for a further four
years of omnipotence as president of the world governing body.
Blatter exerts a vice-like grip over FIFA with a number of his own men in charge of the regional
affiliations (think Jack Warner at CONCACAF or Michel Platini at UEFA, for example) and his
strategic planning, in that such planning exists, purely targets the maintenance of control by
buying off just enough of the FIFA family with his complex and often contradictory edicts.
Last season, Football Is Fixed created the Bum Ref Index to demonstrate which officials had the
most negative and, in many cases, corrupt influence on outcomes in the matches in which they
officiated. Mark Clattenburg was the best referee for season 2006/07 (for final end of season
ratings see: http://footballisfixed.blogspot.com/2007/05/bum-ref-update-20062007.
Out of the first one hundred Premiership matches this season, Sky Television have selected just one
Arsenal game for live coverage (against Portsmouth) and, taking the data up to the December limit
of Sky's disclosures, only the minnows of Wigan, Fulham, Birmingham, Derby, Reading, Blackburn and
Middlesboro are shown less than the Gunners. Why so?
Global betting turnover on live Sky Premiership games is markedly higher than the other Premiership
games.
Based on The Economist's Big Mac Index which utilises the economic fallacy of purchasing power
parity to determine which global currencies are over/under-valued, Football is Fixed introduced the
Bum Ref Index last season. This assesses the negative impact that Premiership referees have on the
games in which they officiate together with our proprietary individual psychological profiling and
the institutional and individual manipulations relating to bookmakers, clubs and other corrupt
power loci.
Last season, Mark Clattenburg was the best referee as measured by Football Is Fixed's Bum Ref
Index. In an underachievement of some magnitude, the man is this season rated the most incompetent
of the Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) referees.
The Economist's Big Mac Index, on which our slightly subjective league table is based, utilises the
econo-myth of purchasing power parity to compare currencies while we compare referees negative
impact on the games in which they officiate using our privileged position as market analysts.
So, nobody wants Frank Lampard. The statement from one of Barcelona's board members was unequivocal
"Lampard knows he has no chance of moving to any of the big European clubs...there is no other
option. He has been offered to us, Milan, Inter and Real Madrid, basically all of the big clubs,
but nobody is interested".
So Frank's brinkmanship has been found out and his agent, Steve Kutner, is busy backtracking and
making conciliatory noises towards the Chelsea hierarchy: "Frank has always said he wants to stay
at Chelsea for the rest of his career" together with a more dubious "he will be as committed as
ever".
Magical Thinking is a behavioural disorder or style that is very common among leisure gamblers. It
should not, therefore, come as any surprise to know that Magical Thinking is targeted directly by
those that would wish for you to gamble.
Every gambling sector incorporates this fallacious mode of "analysis" into their structure.
In Hong Kong and elsewhere in the Far East, the number 4 is regarded as extremely unlucky while the
number 8 is full of harmonious resonances to the extent that, if you are trading the horseracing
markets it is vital to take account of the market imbalances created by this illogical thought
process ie there is generally only value to be found in opposing horse number 8 while backing horse
number 4 is a good thing (obviously with all other factors taken into consideration).
Great news for the defences of Israel and Russia - Michael Owen made his long-awaited comeback for
Newcastle last night by successfully failing to score during the hour that he spent on the pitch
against non-league Blue Star.
Only the casinos of Europe have seen more of little Michael than the Newcastle treatment room since
his arrival in the north east following a conspicuous lack of interest in his playing abilities
from the G14(18) clubs after his debacle of a spell at Real Madrid.
On Tuesday, an arrest warrant was issued in Thailand for Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife over
illegal land deals in Bangkok.
On Wednesday, Richard Scudamore (the chief executive of the Premier League) sits next to Shinawatra
and his posse of mercenary bodyguards for the Premiership match between Man City and Derby.
Scudamore possesses no expert inside knowledge of the corruption repeatedly perpetrated by
Shinawatra in his homeland and he has studiously ignored the representations from Human Rights
Watch and Amnesty International regarding extra-judicial killings.
Twenty one. That was the number of influential match outcome altering decisions perpetrated by the
Professional Game Match Official Board (PGMOB) referees in the weekend's Premiership football
matches.
Football market analysts have come to expect an extra degree of manipulation in the big betting
windows but Saturday and Sunday's games were particularly hard hit by the input of Keith Hackett's
match controllers.
Usmanov eats babies for breakfast and Abramovich offers financial inducements to the Russians to
beat your national heroes. No matter on your perspective, the new breed of East European owners and
board members in the Premiership are far more entertaining in their degree of psychopathy than the
likes of Louis Edwards, who merely sold poisoned meat knowingly to Manchester schoolchildren.
It is a pity that the geopolitical machinations of Israel don't receive the same degree of media
attention as their footballing ones as page after page after page discusses the realities about to
be unleashed onto our horizons.
Tomorrow's Israel versus Russia is a major problem not only for England, the Football Association,
the media, the bookmakers, UEFA and the feelgood factor of a nation at large, it also has the
potential to cause issues regarding the integrity of the game as a whole.
Omer Golan's got a brand new £50K Merc courtesy of English bookmaker Fred Done after scoring the
winning goal for Israel at the weekend.
Spectacular society salvation comes in many forms.
Even by the standards of the English media where fact and spun disinformation were long ago
divorced from one another, the reality presented to us as the Israel versus Russia football match
stands out like a beacon.
Events over the last seven days encapsulate in microcosm the rampant corruption and associated loss
of any vestige of integrity in the professional football world. Throughout this week, virtually all
of the major areas of concern within the game have enjoyed their window in the public spotlight.
From oligarchs to the Thai elections, from Quest and the bungs inquiry to heavily corrupted global
spectacular matches, the state of the game has been laid bare for all to see.
The probability that the three concluding crucial matches in Euro 2008 Qualifying Group E would go
the way of Israel, Macedonia and Croatia is an occurrence that would be expected only once in every
two millennia (544/1 was the accumulator price). If rarity is indicative of beauty and price then
last night's encounter was a many splendored thing.
When is a rigged match not a rigged match?
When the rigging is perpetrated by the bookmakers and/or the footballing authorities. That's
when.
There is a flip side to this scenario - woe betide anybody else frigging about and rigging...
UEFA is currently investigating fifteen matches from the early phases of this season which revealed
suspicious betting patterns.
Being in Glasgow on the day that Ibrox is raided by the City of London Police is, as a Celtic fan,
a proper grin. The fact that Newcastle, Souness and Portsmouth are also being rightfully and
properly investigated only adds to a general air of slightly malicious good humour. Undoubtedly,
the raids are scratching the surface of the corruption endemic in the English and, to a lesser
extent, the British game.
On the last two weekends, Sky's Super Sunday matches have yielded incredibly corrupt global betting
events that clearly exhibit the power play between the different market makers as they seek and
attempt to gain proprietary control of these high profile matches.
The key aspect to Sky's heavily biased and manipulative televised output is their over confidence
in the security of their control of the events under their warped jurisdiction.
Dietrological/Football Is Fixed attempt to point leisure punters in the correct direction both with
respect to the markets that should be considered for trading and the bookmakers that are kosher
with regard to offering suitable prices and reliable payment.
Unfortunately, the global betting markets are in a constant state of flux and what might appear to
be a stable and non-manipulated betting platform may transform into something much less edifying.
Creative market analysts love advanced technologies that might provide a competitive edge in the
marketplace. There is only one problem with this reliance - all such technologies are highly
dependent on the quality of the data set and the choice of the key configurative parameters that
the software requires as inputs.
Basically, the ground is defined by "rubbish in, rubbish out".
Over the summer we posted two articles about the Dietrological Football Information Provision
Service and promised a third which we decided to delay. Until now.
The hitting of the pause button was due to complex changes in Dietrological/ Football Is Fixed
infrastructure and I saw little point preparing an incredibly dull business-orientated post only to
have to do exactly the same several weeks later.
If you're going to do the corrupt thing then at least you should have the intelligence to do that
corrupt thing well.
The following are the inputs of the Sky talking heads prior to the game and during the first half
hour of today's Manchester United versus Wigan Athletic match.
"Score early and they'll get a hatful" - Richard Keys.
"United, going forward, scoring lots of goals" - Keys again.
Henk Ten Cate, the well-known casino game, will later today become assistant coach at Chelsea hence
completing the process whereby Mourinho's role has been split between Ten Cate, Avram Grant and
Frank Arneson in a highly original triumvirate piece of job sharing.
Aside from offering solid proof that Roman's reactiveness to Mourinho's gambit was always the
reality in this affair (why else would the boss man not have had his new team in place immediately
and why the flirting with the unavailable Van Basten?
Approximation in decision making may be fine if such approximation is random. In top level English
football, it most certainly is not random.
Why is it that all the power structures in football desire errors?
When video technology exists and is successfully used in all other major team sports (rugby union,
rugby league, cricket), why is football ostrich-syndromed about validating their sport?
Windows like this are liable to demolish prime ministerial careers - not only has Gordon Brown
lacked the midas-touch thing relating to England's Rugby Union World Cup Final and their abominable
failure to qualify for Euro 2008 but now, after yesterday's draw for the Finals, the treble whammy
is completed by the significantly increased probability of a German victory in the tournament.
All change please...
From time to time (on six occasions per year, actually), I am required to post an infrastructural
blog relating to Football Is Fixed/ Dietrological (FIF/D) and this is one of those times.
Over the last six months, I have been undertaking a strategy to separate FIF/D from its sister
operation in Greece as, in a process of deprofessionalisation, I made the decision that I no longer
wished to work with certain elements of the European bookmaking industry.
So celebrated Sky's scouse comedian commentator, Rob Palmer, after Julio Baptista had volleyed
misery into the heart of Catalunya in last night's el clásico - the final major betting event of
the pre-xmas weekend. We must assume that Palmer's inability to speak parallelled the
speechlessness of anybody unfortunate enough to bear witness to the six massively corrupted
televised matches offered for our delectation and delight.
Manchester United yesterday secured the Opening Championship in the Premiership after Arsenal were
physically intimidated without the protection of the match officials for the third consecutive away
match. When we projected this scenario earlier in the season, there were those who doubted our
assessment.
The idiocy of the average Manchester City fan seemingly knows no bounds - City supporters, unable
to deal with words of four or more syllables, have taken to calling new owner, Thaksin Shinawatra,
Frank (after Sinatra - geddit?). Evidently the level of humour which leads to the City of
Manchester Stadium being one of the very few grounds where incredibly humourous chants (sic)
linking Tottenham fans with the genocide in nazi gas chambers, remains strong to this day.
A tale of two totalitarian corruptions involving the mafia and sports people...
Tim Donaghy has left the NBA basketball world in a state of considerable turbulence following his
prosecution for influencing professional games in the US. Donaghy is a referee who has been found
guilty of rigging large numbers of basketball matches over a two year period although he had
officiated for thirteen years prior to being forced to resign.
We warned you that the Barclays Asia Trophy was likely to be a hot competition when the
participants were named several months back - Hicks, Gillett, Gaydamek and Al-Fayed at one event
was always likely to engender a creative little affair. And, so it has proved to date.
This is the third of these pre-season bookmaker benefit tournaments. The fundamental structure
requires a number of Premiership teams to take part in a four team pre-season event based in a key
gambling location in the Far East - this year, to celebrate ten years without British rule, Hong
Kong is hosting the event.
With the Quest inquiry, the City of London police raids on three clubs, the death of Woolmer, the
Premier League/West Ham fiasco, Poll's retiring refrains and Shinawatra, the bookmakers together
with their client regulatory bodies must be delighted that the focus on corruption has moved out of
their territory and over to Le Tour de France.
The use of Performance Enhancing Substances (PESs) is common in most sports.
The media focuses our attentions on the battles in the season ahead. Will Tottenham break into the
top four ahead of their north London rivals? Will Manchester City or, for that matter, Liverpool
make up any ground on Manchester United? Chelsea or United for the Premiership? What about Celtic
versus Rangers or Barcelona and Real Madrid or Milan, Inter and Juve?
At a first glance, there might not appear to be much in common between the bookmaking and insurance
industries. Think again. The two sectors are virtually identical.
The basic foundation of the business models for bookmakers and insurers involves the accurate
analysis of risk assessment and management. These market makers have an aversion to risk and create
strategies whereby any exposure is diversified and/or hedged away from the risk profile of the
company.
