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Despite what Cesar Luis Menotti may want you to believe, football is a game of offense
and
defense. So as a follow up to my recent post on last season's offensive performance in the big
leagues, I thought it was only fair to defenders and goalkeepers to take a look at who has been
doing a great job keeping the opposition at bay.
Here's a (possibly) puzzling factoid of the day. Together with Benjamin Leinwand, I've been looking
at goal production in different leagues over the last 15 years, give or take. And one of the (to
us, at least) interesting and puzzling patterns has to do with how many goals are scored per match
in the biggest European leagues - including the Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A, the EPL, Ligue 1, and
the Eredivisie.
Here's a different way of looking at positive leverage. In the spirit of analyses that have looked
at teams' ability to generate and take advantage of chances in a match, it's a way to identify
teams that both generate positive leverage situations and manage to, well, leverage them for a
win.
Here's what the graphs show.
Here's a different way of looking at positive leverage. In the spirit of analyses that have looked
at teams' ability to generate and take advantage of chances in a match, it's a way to identify
teams that both generate positive leverage situations and manage to, well, leverage them for a
win.
Here's what the graphs show.
In earlier posts, I have discussed the idea of positive and negative leverage - the idea that being
up or down a goal (or two or three) changes the dynamics and the psychology of a match.
Statistically, I defined it as the odds of a team winning the match, given the particular score at
the time and the time remaining in the match.
In earlier posts, I have discussed the idea of positive and negative leverage - the idea that being
up or down a goal (or two or three) changes the dynamics and the psychology of a match.
Statistically, I defined it as the odds of a team winning the match, given the particular score at
the time and the time remaining in the match.
A couple of days ago, I wrote about the positive leverage teams generate when they are up by a goal
or the lousy leverage they have when they are down by one. I defined the leverage that puts one
team in control of the match or creates pressure on another team statistically as "the likelihood
of winning, given the score and the time remaining in the game.
A couple of days ago, I wrote about the positive leverage teams generate when they are up by a goal
or the lousy leverage they have when they are down by one. I defined the leverage that puts one
team in control of the match or creates pressure on another team statistically as "the likelihood
of winning, given the score and the time remaining in the game.
In soccer, a single goal has enormous value. In fact, we can put a number on that value. I've
written about this before in posts on the most common scores in soccer or posts about the point
value of goals. In a game where over 50% of matches involve fewer than 3 goals, and the most common
score line is a goal difference of 1 (rather than 3 or 4), being ahead or behind is a big deal.
In soccer, a single goal has enormous value. In fact, we can put a number on that value. I've
written about this before in posts on the most common scores in soccer or posts about the point
value of goals. In a game where over 50% of matches involve fewer than 3 goals, and the most common
score line is a goal difference of 1 (rather than 3 or 4), being ahead or behind is a big deal.
This graph allows you to gauge one aspect of teams' offensive production with the help of the Reep
ratio (aka the goals to shots ratio). Across the four leagues covered here, the average is
currently .108 (or about 1 goal in 9.25 shots). With a median of .091, 50% of teams need at least
11 shots to score 1 goal, while the other 50% need less than 11 shots to score.
This graph allows you to gauge one aspect of teams' offensive production with the help of the Reep
ratio (aka the goals to shots ratio). Across the four leagues covered here, the average is
currently .108 (or about 1 goal in 9.25 shots). With a median of .091, 50% of teams need at least
11 shots to score 1 goal, while the other 50% need less than 11 shots to score.
A quick follow up on how good Barcelona are this year; in a few days, I'll do a more involved post
on where the leagues stand at this point in the season, but I thought I'd share this little tidbit
for the Barca aficionados out there - and those of you who love to hate on Barca. Whether you're a
fan or a hater, you have to be impressed with how good they have been this year.
With clubs like Liverpool, Chelsea, and Aston Villa dishing out loads of cash - well, actually
recycling it - to move for strikers during the most recent transfer window, I started wondering how
valuable goals really are. Obviously, you need to score goals to win matches, but how many points
does a first or second or third goal give you?
In case you were wondering how your favorite league compares on various metrics with the other big
leagues of soccer, below is a quick graph of
accuracy ratios
(defined as the ratio of shots on target to all shots taken) across the Bundesliga, EPL, La Liga,
and Serie A as of the end of the calendar year (roughly halfway through the season).
In earlier posts, I looked at the correlation between fouls and red and yellow cards in the Big 4
leagues as well as the distribution of yellows and reds in the 2009/10 season or the cost of
receiving yellow cards, but I haven't spent much time talking about
red cards in and
of themselves.
Corner kicks are kind of like free kicks in the opponent's half: both are set pieces. They're also
among the few moments in a match when teams have a real and predictable chance to create
significant chances. So they're among the few guaranteed opportunities to score. And while I've
been thinking about them for some time, I have not reported any systematic analyses of corners.
Which are the best soccer teams or leagues in the world? Of course we can see which teams win more
matches, and for leagues, UEFA's league coefficient allows us to answer that question with a fair
amount of precision. Less systematic but popular ways of determining league or team quality
involves looking at international head-to-head competition, or evaluating which leagues attract the
best players and managers.
Which teams are the worst (and best) defensive teams in the big leagues of European soccer? Let's
take a look at defensive performance so far this year - since it's roughly the halfway mark
everywhere, these numbers should be more or less comparable across teams and leagues (assuming that
the leagues are similar in important ways, which we know to be sorta true from previous analyses
I've posted here .
