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In hindsight, relegation often seems inevitable. If you had asked the pundits, Blackpool's demotion to the Championship last year was all but a done deal in August. But do the data agree? And what can they tell us about the inevitability and predictability of relegation ahead of time, rather than after the fact?

Blocked shots don't typically make the highlight reel. Of course, they don't, you might say - they're a non-event. Well, they are, and they aren't. They're an event that wasn't of much consequence in the scheme of things. But they are still "events" in the way that that the good folks at companies like Opta think about them.

(c) 2010 Premier LeagueAccording to the BBC, when Chelsea played Birmingham City FC the afternoon of November 20, 2010 at St.Andrews, they took 25 shots on Ben Foster's goal. Birmingham took only 1 – yes one – shot the entire match. The end result? Birmingham 1, Chelsea 0. One way to read these results is to say Birmingham got lucky.

Last weekend was one of the more glorious moments in the history of Manchester City Football Club. They cruised past Aston Villa to a convincing 4-1 home win, grabbing the spotlight with conviction, despite plenty of off-field distractions and pressures to justify the tab their owners have laid out. This weekend at least and at last, City look to be in the catbird seat compared to local rivals United, who barely managed to eke out a draw ten minutes from time at Anfield.

Haven't had much time these past few days to do much in terms of detailed analyses, so here's just a fun (ok, "fun for geeks") graph of efficiency ratios (accuracy and conversion) for teams in the big 4 leagues during the 2010/11 season. Accuracy is defined as the ratio of accurate shots to all shots created; conversion is the ratio of goals to accurate shots.

Not imposing enough?The other day, Jose Mourinho made news by claiming that last season was his best ever as a coach. Truth is, he did do very well. Real came in second in La Liga, won the cup, and reached the semi-finals of the Champions League. Now, whether that's really better than any of the seasons with Porto, Chelsea, or Inter is another question.

A few days ago, I wrote about different ways of measuring a team's performance - either in absolute or relative terms. Relative metrics are useful if we are interested in drilling a little deeper into what players or teams are able to do, given the resources they have or in relation to some other event on the pitch, not simply whether they do a lot or a little (like scoring or possessing the ball).

Tomorrow is Labor Day here in the United States. So naturally, I've been thinking about how we measure work performance in football. It's also a long weekend, with most people off from work for three days. If they spending it catching up on the Premier League season so far, they could be forgiven for scratching their heads upon finding out that last year's top scorers in the Premier League Dimitar Berbatov and Carlos Tevez have yet to start a singe match this season.

Despite what Cesar Luis Menotti may want you to believe, football is a game of offense and defense. So as a follow up to my recent post on last season's offensive performance in the big leagues, I thought it was only fair to defenders and goalkeepers to take a look at who has been doing a great job keeping the opposition at bay.

During the past year, I have compared teams across the Big 4 leagues (Bundesliga, EPL, La Liga, Serie A) with regard to various performance indicators. With the Bundesliga about to get underway tonight, I thought it'd be interesting to see where they all ended up by the end of the season, and to find out what we may expect for next year.

While some goals are certainly more beautiful than others, do some actually matter more than others? I've been trying get a bead on this question in part by comparing the relative value of goals created in different ways. My earlier analysis of Guardian Chalkboard/Opta data for the Premier League from the 2010/11 season suggested that open play goals had a stronger statistical connection with points or wins than set piece goals did (The Guardian defined set piece goals as resulting from penalties, free kicks, and corners).

Congratulations to FC Barcelona for capturing their 2nd Champions League in 3 seasons. Three incisive goals from Messi, Villa and Pedro saw Barca cruise to a 3-1 victory over Manchester United. More analysis to follow.

No related posts.

Join us over at our sister site, EPL Talk, and share in the discussion and banter with soccer fans around the world. We're expecting a big crowd online for the biggest game of the season. And we hope you can join us.

The live blog will be available at epltalk.com starting at at 2:45pm EST.

Which kind of final are we going to get this season? For every 1999 or 2002 final that people still talk about there seems to be an equal number of forgettable finals (think 2003) that produce more hyperbole than high-calibre football.

This season's final has been branded a 'dream match' by many pundits and on the surface it is easy to see why.

FC Porto wrote another chapter in their majestic season by becoming Europa League champions. Porto beat Sporting Braga 1-0 in the Europa League final at the AVIVA Stadium (referred to as the "Dublin Arena" for this final). Porto had previously claimed domestic league honours, their 25th league title, as well as winning the Supertaça Cândido de Oliveira (also known as the Portuguese SuperCup).

If you've been reading this blog these last few weeks, you know that I've been spending way too much time digging through data on shot creation in the Premier League with the help of the Opta/Guardian chalkboards. But I can't quite help myself, so here's yet another installment; this time it's on the (relative) uselessness of free kicks.

A few days ago, I took a look at the origins of goals in the first half of this year's Premier League season to see what we can learn about the connection between different match situations (defined as open play, corners, fast breaks, penalties, and free kicks) and goal creation.
In case you didn't have the time or inclination to read the details, here's the upshot: Keeping in mind that teams scored on average 1.

Goals don't just happen - they are made. Both on offense and defense, teams control how they deploy their resources (speak: players) on the pitch, and they make tactical choices about how to attack and defend. Some rely more on fast breaks, while others try to create or avoid chances from open play. So this means that goals are created and allowed.

When Hernandez scored for Manchester United in the first minute of play against Chelsea today on a fast break after a beautiful pass from Park, it reminded me of the high value such shots have for teams. Mind you, these kinds of opportunities don't come along all that much in the average match: I have previously noted that teams actually create relatively few shots from fast breaks.

Here's another analysis of shot creation in the Premier League. This time, I'm looking into the creation of accurate shots from one specific kind of situation: open play.
From the earlier analyses, we already know the following basic facts from the first half of this year's EPL season, based on data from the Opta/Guardian chalkboards.

Here's another analysis of shot creation in the Premier League. This time, I'm looking into the creation of accurate shots from one specific kind of situation: open play.
From the earlier analyses, we already know the following basic facts from the first half of this year's EPL season, based on data from the Opta/Guardian chalkboards.

The third installment of this season's 'El Clasico' match-up between Real Madrid and Barcelona could have been renamed 'El Fiasco'. Depending on your outlook, it may have been surprising to see Jose Mourinho's Madrid squad setup with such bullying tactics. Both coaches had strong words for one another in the press conference so I was not surprised that the atmosphere was tense.

I've been spending a few posts looking at shot creation in the Premiership. One of the things I haven't spent much time on is differences across teams in in terms of who has been creating the most and least shots from different kinds of situations. These situations are open play, corners, free kicks, fast breaks, and penalties.

I've been spending a few posts looking at shot creation in the Premiership. One of the things I haven't spent much time on is differences across teams in in terms of who has been creating the most and least shots from different kinds of situations. These situations are open play, corners, free kicks, fast breaks, and penalties.

News flash: SBTN has been nominated for a 2010-11 EPL Award in the category "Best EPL Blog (qualification round)."
The third annual EPL Awards recognizes the best of the 2010-11 Premier League season. EPL Talk has taken a close look at the Premier League season and have picked out the best footballers, managers, podcasts, blogs, radio shows, online games and more for readers to vote for.

News flash: SBTN has been nominated for a 2010-11 EPL Award in the category "Best EPL Blog (qualification round)."
The third annual EPL Awards recognizes the best of the 2010-11 Premier League season. EPL Talk has taken a close look at the Premier League season and have picked out the best footballers, managers, podcasts, blogs, radio shows, online games and more for readers to vote for.

In an earlier post, I took a closer look at shot creation in the Premier League to see what number and proportion of shots are created from different match situations. The numbers, courtesy of the Opta/Guardian chalkboards and covering the first half of this year's EPL season, showed that most shots were generated from open play (11 on average per team/match).

In an earlier post, I examined shot creation in the Premier League to see what number and proportion of shots are created from different match situations. The numbers, courtesy of the Opta/Guardian chalkboards and covering the first half of this year's EPL season, showed that most shots were generated from open play (11 on average per team/match).

Here's a different way of looking at positive leverage. In the spirit of analyses that have looked at teams' ability to generate and take advantage of chances in a match, it's a way to identify teams that both generate positive leverage situations and manage to, well, leverage them for a win.
Here's what the graphs show.

Here's a different way of looking at positive leverage. In the spirit of analyses that have looked at teams' ability to generate and take advantage of chances in a match, it's a way to identify teams that both generate positive leverage situations and manage to, well, leverage them for a win.
Here's what the graphs show.

The fact that soccer scores are low compared to other team sports actually makes the game more exciting. After all, any one score, any one action or mistake on the field can make or break a team's day. Soccer's high stakes and the rare beauty of goals has a downside for analysts, however. In particular, the trouble with goals from an analysis perspective is that they are infrequent.

Soccer's relatively low scores compared to other team sports make the game exciting and agonizing at the same time. After all, any one score, any one action or mistake on the field can make or break a team's day. Soccer's high stakes and the rare beauty of goals have a downside for analysts, however.

The first legs of the quarter-finals saw 3 of 4 matches end with large advantages being established. The fixture that all the attention will be focused on this week will be the second leg match between Manchester United FC and Chelsea FC. United played a perfect road game and took an important away goal and a 1-0 aggregate lead back to Old Trafford.

I thought I'd provide a quick and ready update on offensive production metrics this season in the EPL. Here are the overall averages per team/match, ordered from highest to lowest scoring teams, as of late February, 2011.
You can see that Man U and Arsenal lead the pack in producing goals (and Chelsea and Man City not too far behind); Birmingham brings up the rear, along with Wigan, Wolves, Fulham, and West Ham.

I thought I'd provide a quick and ready update on offensive production metrics this season in the EPL. Here are the overall averages per team/match, ordered from highest to lowest scoring teams, as of late February, 2011.
You can see that Man U and Arsenal lead the pack in producing goals (and Chelsea and Man City not too far behind); Birmingham brings up the rear, along with Wigan, Wolves, Fulham, and West Ham.

Clean sheets are a wonderful thing. As I've noted in a couple of previous posts, they're wonderful because they guarantee a team at least one point from a match and potentially gives it three. In previous analyses of data for the EPL from the 2009-10 season, I reported that clean sheets produced about 2.

Clean sheets are a wonderful thing. As I've noted in a couple of previous posts, they're wonderful because they guarantee a team at least one point from a match and potentially gives it three. In previous analyses of data for the EPL from the 2009-10 season, I reported that clean sheets produced about 2.

Check out my post on the New York Times Goal blog here. Enjoy!

Check out my post on the New York Times Goal blog here. Enjoy!

I was looking forward to an exciting Champions League tie between perennials AC Milan and newcomers Tottenham Hotspur. The match did deliver excitement but was marred by the mindless actions of both Milan midfielder Gennaro Gattuso and Mathieu Flamini. UEFA is already investigating the incidents involving Gattuso and Tottenham coach Joe Jordan.