Club football seasons across most of Europe have ended. The lack of serious football (apart from
the Euro 2012 in a few weeks) means the off-field stuff like transfer rumors and player agents take
the center stage. Recent news items like the deal of Bebe to Manchester United highlight the
inefficiencies and the lack of transparency in the transfer market.
If you are not from the blue half of Manchester, any discussion that involves Manchester City
quickly boils down to buying titles.
A few weeks ago when City played Arsenal at the Emirates, there was this banner:
With the Manchester Derby looming on Monday, there are a slew of articles centered on arguments
like buying titles and class.
The astute reader will recognize the title of this post as a play on Edward Tufte's book of a
similar name. While Tufte's work focuses on turning quantitative data into an easily consumable
format that has a clear message, it's also important to do so with qualitative data. Qualitative
data can often be the "how" or "why" to go along with the "what" provided by quantitative data.
I'm pleased to announce that I've joined StatDNA as Vice President of Analytics and Software
Development. This is a super exciting opportunity for me as I'll be combining my loves of
software development, data analysis and soccer. What could be better? I'll hopefully have some
blog posts up for StatDNA over at their blog soon using their best in breed data.
There was an interesting article this morning on Soccernet about Robin Van Persie being in the
"injury red zone". Hyperbole aside, it raises the point that Arsenal have had the luxury of
playing Van Persie in every league match so far (starting 12 of 13) but will have to manage his
workload a little more conservatively or risk a decrease in performance or potential injury.
I'm always on the lookout for new ways to visualize data in the hopes that it might lead to a
better understanding of the data. In the first leg of the tie between Real Salt Lake and Seattle
Sounders FC, the Sounders midfield was completely MIA for large portions of the game while RSL
enjoyed large periods of maintaining possession.
There has been lots of talk about the goal glut that is happening in the Premier League right
now. Are pricey strikers to blame or is it the death of quality defense? Decision Technology's
Ian Graham has already taken a look at debunking the Guardian's piece on the "goal glut". I
thought I'd add my two cents.
It was rough being a Sounder's fan last night. Amidst discussions of a CONCACAF Champions
League curse, playing at altitude and missing one of their best players of the season in Mauro
Rosales, the Sounders had a tough playoff matchup against Real Salt Lake. While most fans would
have been surprised if the Sounders had come away with a first leg lead, going down 3-0 was a bit
of a shock.
During tonight's MLS Playoff match between the New York Red Bulls and FC Dallas, the "Curse of
CONCACAF Champions League" was brought up. FC Dallas has had to play more matches than NYRB this
season and came into the match looking a bit fatigued. Since the CONCACAF version isn't as
lucrative as the European version, it is getting the reputation as being a drain on teams.
Previously I've written about examining conversion rates and shots as a way of examining which
areas an offense or defense excels at or is struggling with. Shots can be a crude estimation for
opportunities and conversion rate and estimation of how well a team executes on those
opportunities. I had looked at offense and defense separately in the past, but decided to combine
the two to see if any interesting patterns emerged.
As I've previously posted, I had the chance to speak at the New England Symposium on Statistics
in Sports. They've now posted the videos and slides from all the presentations. I've posted my
video below as well as the slides and original blog post so that all the content is in one place.
Originally I wanted to title my talk "Cool Shit You Can Do With Markov Chains in Soccer" but toned
it down a bit to "A framework for tactical analysis and individual offensive production assessment
in soccer using Markov chains".
This weekend I had the privilege of speaking at the New England Symposium on Statistics in
Sports. It is a much more technical conference than the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference so I
felt a bit like a duck out of water given my background in computer science and not hardcore
statistical methods (and these guys were hardcore!
Earlier this week I had the pleasure of sitting down with Ravi and Elisa from Forza Futbol to
record a podcast about Sports Analytics. We discuss a whole host of topics including some of the
work I haven't had a chance to publish yet involving looking at the quality of cantera products
(using the Castrol Index).
I am thrilled to announce that I will be speaking at this year's New England Symposium on
Statistics in Sports (NESSIS) on September 24th. Earlier this year, StatDNA announced a Soccer
Analytics research competition and my paper was selected as the winning entry. I'll be giving a
talk titled "A framework for tactical analysis and individual offensive production assessment in
soccer using Markov chains".
Map of birthplaces for players currently in La Liga (excluding Spain)
This is our second post in our series on the origins of players previously we looked at the
Premier League. La Liga is little different from the Premier League, both in terms of
infrastructure ("B" squads can compete in lower divisions) and culturally (Athletic Bilbao has a
policy to only sign players from the Basque region).