Which Goals Matter? The High Value of Transition Play in the Premier League

While some goals are certainly more beautiful than others, do some actually matter more than others? I've been trying get a bead on this question in part by comparing the relative value of goals created in different ways. My earlier analysis of Guardian Chalkboard/Opta data for the Premier League from the 2010/11 season suggested that open play goals had a stronger statistical connection with points or wins than set piece goals did (The Guardian defined set piece goals as resulting from penalties, free kicks, and corners).

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